Mises Quote

Clock

Hudson

Archive for Ethanol

Jan-10
14

A Question of Quantities

Posted by: Flashy | Comments (0)

Even IF CO2 were an issue (which it is certainly not), one cannot avoid the obvious…. Another moronic move by George W. Bush who pushed for the Energy Bill that committed all of us to this nonsense…

‘. . . A gallon of gasoline contains 124,262 British Thermal Units (BTUs) of energy, and the weight of carbon dioxide produced by burning a gallon of gasoline is 19.56 pounds. A gallon of ethanol biofuel contains 76,000 BTUs, only 61% of the energy of gasoline, and the weight of carbon dioxide produced by burning a gallon of ethanol biofuel is 12.57 pounds. If ethanol biofuel is used to travel a distance requiring 124,262 BTUs of energy, the same distance a gallon of gasoline would travel, it would require 1.64 gallons of ethanol biofuel, with 20.55 pounds of carbon dioxide emitted into the air. Thus, using ethanol biofuel instead of a gallon of gasoline will emit about a pound more of carbon dioxide into the air.’

Seldon B. Graham, Jr.
Legion of Honor Member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers

From: A question of quantities by Mr. Seldon B. Graham posted out at the SPPI blog

Categories : Energy, Ethanol
Comments (0)
Dec-08
09

Government’s Unintended Consequences

Posted by: Chris | Comments (0)

What a tangled web we weave. Look for increased pressure for some kind of bailout from the Ethanol industry as corn and ethanol price decline. So with the fall of gasoline prices corn too has fallen in half of what it once was. The second largest ethanol producer, VeraSun recently filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy. This coming on top of the 50 cent per gallon subsidy ethanol production already receives.

The United States largest chicken producer, Pilgrim’s Pride, also filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on December 1st, citing the major reason was the higher cost of feed stemming from federal subsidies and mandates that diverted corn into ethanol production. As a result of the misguided U.S. ethanol policy, we have raised the cost of producing food, and now we face the possibility of a smaller food supply and much higher food prices.

U.S. corn-based ethanol production is so inefficient that U.S. ethanol, with only 66 percent of the energy per gallon of gasoline, costs more per gallon than gasoline. Mixing ethanol with gasoline reduces fuel mileage and increases the pump cost of fuel.

Nowhere in any of the news articles around the country do I find that ethanol is already subsidized to the tune of 50 cents a gallon. Even with that subsidy, you will be hearing about many ethanol producers simply closing up shop. But like all the other things government gets involved with, look for the call of bailout of the ethanol industry. There is nothing that government intrudes into that doesn’t have unintended consequences with it. Just wait till they intrude into the energy sector 4 fold of what they already are. Wait till they intrude into your private health care decisions. Wait till they intrude into your constitutional right to defend yourself. Wait till they tell you what is acceptable to think.

Comments (0)
Dec-08
04

$1 A Gallon Gas On It’s Way

Posted by: Chris | Comments (0)

RANDOLPH

Gulf Oil CEO Joe Petrowski said on Wednesday that the price of oil could sink to $20 per barrel, and there is a chance gasoline prices could drop as low as $1 per gallon by early next year.

See Gulf Oil CEO says gas could hit $1 next year

Comments (0)
Aug-08
22

OPEC’s undoing…

Posted by: Chris | Comments (0)

Every barrel of oil that the environmentalists have succeeded in getting the U.S. government not to allow to be produced, every ton of coal that they have prevented from being mined, every atomic power plant whose construction they have stopped, has served to make oil scarcer and more expensive and subsequently to enrich OPEC and increase the funds available for the support of terrorism.

George Reisman at Mises

- Every new barrel of oil produced in America is a barrel NOT purchased from OPEC;

- Every new barrel of oil produced in America is a barrel that can be sold on the world market;

- Every new barrel of American oil sold on the world market represents an addition to American GDP;

- Every new barrel of American oil sold on the world market represents an increase in global oil supply vs. demand;

- Every new barrel of American oil sold on the world market represents further reduction in revenues to OPEC, via both downward pressure on oil prices and by drawing international customers away from the OPEC cartel;

- Every new barrel of American oil sold on the world market represents more jobs and income for Americans;

- Every new barrel of American oil sold on the world market represents a powerful shot in the arm of the world economy, with the potential to spur another long-term economic boom cycle;

- History has shown that worldwide economic recession is a catalyst for war, while worldwide economic prosperity is a powerful catalyst for peace – therefore every new barrel of American oil is a brick in a new foundation of world peace.

The facts are is that coal and atomic energy technology is 20 times safer and cleaner than it was in the 60’s and early 70’s. In fact I’ve even heard about reactors not having ANY spent rods after they are done using them. There won’t be a need to bury them anywhere. Additionally, coal plants have reduced their environmental output 20 fold. Today wind power accounts for .66 of 1 percent of today electricity. If it was practical and feasible, the markets would have capitalised on it and that number would be 20 fold higher. Solar is even more dismal.

Comments (0)
Jun-08
28

More Fun with Math

Posted by: Chris | Comments (0)

CO2 only makes up less than four one hundredths of one percent of the worlds atmosphere. This is a very small number. If you were to fly from Los Angeles to New York, one hundredths of one percent of the distance would not get you off the runway at LAX!

Jun-08
17

EconTalk Podcast

Posted by: Chris | Comments (0)

Don Boudreaux of George Mason University talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the recent surge in energy prices. They talk about why prices have risen, the implications for America’s standard of living and the implications for public policy and why things aren’t as dire as they appear.

[mp3]http://www.econlib.org/library/Downloads/y2008/Boudreauxenergy.mp3[/mp3]

http://www.econlib.org/

Comments (0)
May-08
25

The US Postal Service and Efficiency

Posted by: Chris | Comments (0)

During the time period betweeen 1999-2005 the U.S. Post office replced their wicked gas based vehicles with 30,000 alternative vehicles. The out was:

A Postal Service study found the new vehicles got as much as 29 percent fewer miles to the gallon. Mail carriers used the corn-based fuel in just 1,000 of them because there weren’t enough places to buy it.

The Postal Service bought the ethanol vehicles to meet alternative-fuel requirements. The vehicles’ size and ethanol’s lower energy content lowered mileage, the agency said. It takes 1.33 gallons of E85 (85 percent ethanol) and 1.03 gallons of E10 (10 percent ethanol) to travel the same distance as with one gallon of pure gasoline, the Department of Energy says.

Who would expect anything less more of the U.S. Post Office.

See story

Arguably two of the most powerful and knowledgeable characters in Texas, Ross Perot Jr. and T Boone Pickens, were interviewed this morning on CNBC. Perot thinks oil should be -could be- around $70 (me too – actually lower) and Pickens thinks oil will hit $150. OK, you take your pick but I think both men will be correct in the long run.

Pickens had a message for Sheila Harsdorf and her cornification of Wisconsin – “ethanol is a joke.” Sheila, did you hear that – T Boone Pickens, qualified beyond ones imagination to have an opinion on energy, tells us that ethanol is a joke. Well, some out here have been yelling this at the top of their CO2 pumping lungs for quite some time now.. Both men agree that there is no leadership in Washington, and both also agree that natural gas is our ticket out of this growing dependency upon crude oil..

Pickens likes wind turbines to replace the natural gas we currently use for power generation (about 20%), I do not – I find them to be a scar on the terrain and you can’t build them close enough to where the energy is really needed. Frankly, Pickens was being a little disingenuous on this one due principally to his own personally gigantic investment into wind turbines.

Notwithstanding, he gets the point – we need to shift out of using natural gas to produce electricity and replace it with alternatives. Let’s call this one the Texas two-step. Stunningly he did not mention nuclear, one can guess why – he doesn’t have any investments in it plus the NRC creates such a problem for bringing these plants online – it just takes too long. But that is no reason why we ought not get our politicians fully engaged to dramatically shorten the time-line for bringing nuclear plants on-line.

Speaking of politicians, neither man speaks too highly of any of the current crop of presidential candidates. Pickens derided a “gas tax holiday” as ridiculous, calling it “no plan at all.” He’s right, it isn’t.

All in all, one can take away from the interviews with these two guys a message. And it is consistent with what we have been arguing out here for the longest time – government needs to get out of the way and let the market solve our economic and energy challenges. Silly ideas such as using carbohydrates to produce energy as a replacement for hydrocarbons or at the expense of allowing investment into the splitting of atoms are utterly inane. Moreover, I got the distinct impression that there is a bright energy future for us and it consists in the near term of natural gas (one of North America’s greatest untapped resources), nuclear, clean coal, wind, and solar power. And if we simply shift our electricity production to nuclear, clean coal, and wind/solar (where it makes sense) this frees up our massive resources of natural gas for transportation and other uses (heating, etc). Where does this leave oil? Well, in my view, it will leave oil somewhere around $55 to $60 dollars per barrel – maybe even lower – in the long run. The day will come when internal combustion using gasoline will be a choice among several alternatives… competition will drive the price down.

Neither of these two men are dummies, and both see a sane and rational energy production policy by politicians to be the biggest issue this fall – I agree. It would behoove any and all candidates for public office to get off their intellectual rears and come up to speed dramatically on these issues – energy (much more of it, not less) is the ticket to both Congress and the White House this fall and the free market is the best mechanism to get us there.

Here is the order of importance that any would-be candidate needs to advocate in the energy production debate:

1. State the obvious – using energy is not bad! It is a measure of our standard of living, and we need to use it more…
2. Immediately admit that using carbohydrates to replace hydrocarbons or a split atom is a flawed and incorrect idea – stop it and drop it. This means the immediate cessation of corn-ethanol, anything-ethanol, subsidies.
3. Promote the immediate build-out of at least 30 new nuclear plants in the next 15 years (that’s 2 per year coming on line) by making it clear that private investors and investment will not be hamstrung in the process – incentives need to be clear and unambiguous.
4. Promote, where appropriate (in waste lands where the wind blows and no one goes), the build-out of wind turbine electric power generation. This means not the government getting involved, but getting out of the way so that private investors and investment can freely flow into this form of electrical power generation – no subsidies, no onerous obstacles.
5. Require the Iraqi’s to pay us back in oil from northern Iraq – it is the last great inland oil pool in the world and we must recoup our treasure from their oil fields.
6. Whatever restrictions there are on natural gas exploration and field development need to be lessened so that energy companies can profitably (in the long run) exploit this massive natural resource we have right here in North America.
7. Provide more incentives (meaning getting out of the way) for private companies and investors alike to fund and promote clean coal technologies.
8. Instead of subsidizing farmers to grow corn and cut down trees, and calling this an energy policy that in some way legitimizes the DOE, the federal government needs to get out of the energy policy business – abolish the department of energy! If you think this is a wild-eyed idea, just tell me what the existence of it has done for you lately? Hmmmm?
9. Further deregulate the electrical power business in America – we need fewer monopolies, a much more diversified electrical grid (where power is generated by more and smaller plants that are closer to where it is needed).
10. Speak to Americans as intelligent adults and return to the theme that brought this nation from last to first – free market capitalism. Focus like a laser on this theme that capitalism is the one idea that we all implicitly must embrace and defend because at the end of the day, whether it be in energy production or in education, it is what will save your and my ass… So, what role does government have in this? The honest answer is little or nothing! Government intervention is not the solution, it is at the heart of the problem – intervention into the money supply (inflation), intervention into energy production by forcing misallocations and malinvestments, legal barriers and obstacles to innovation and full use of our own natural resources, etc., all serve to cause far more problems than would otherwise be the case. The disingenuous call these effects “unintended consequences,” the truly honest among us call them the obvious and plain result…

Any candidate that embraces these precepts in an articulate and convincing way will win in November because the American people are desparate for rationality – and appealing to reality and the free market is utterly rational… whereas appealing to big government as THE solution is the epitome of irrationality and ignorance.

May-08
13

Cap and Trade This…

Posted by: Cantankerous | Comments (1)

Get this now. What would happen with a cap and trade system? The effect of such a system would be to impose a rationing of coal, oil, and natural gas on the American economy. Each covered utility, oil companies and manufacturing facility would be given allowances based on past emissions or some other formula. The government creates the formula for how much CO2 their allowed to create. Some faceless bureaucrat at the EPA for instance. Those companies that emit less CO2 than permitted by their allowances would sell the excess to those who would not. This is the cap part of cap and trade. By the way, you remember Enron? Ken Lay and those folks where all excited by possibility of this. They thought they could make a fortune, like Al Gwhore is going to make. Over time the cap would be ratcheted down. Ever more tightly… Requiring greater cuts in the emissions of CO2. Electricity prices could jump by 36 to 65% by 2015 and another 85 to 125% by 2050. No analysis has been done by that impact of that. Some estimates say it will increase gasoline prices 26 cents by 2015 and 65 cents by 2050. This is on top of the already high prices that are only going higher. Not only will this mean higher prices for heat and electricity but net job losses in the tens of millions. This is an attack on American industry. We need whats left of our industries here in the U.S. They can thrive and grow under a true free market system. They can not thrive under the level of taxation in this country and by being targeted by the radical religious environmental wackos.

And to think, the nominee for President by what used to be the party of conservatives, John McCain is all for this. There’s no way in hell I’d vote for em.

May-08
03

Ethanol Links

Posted by: Chris | Comments (2)

I’ve been aware that there’s been many searches going on regarding Ethanol these past few days.  Here is an excerpt from a previous post and some links that will get you to some of those past posts.  Feel free to add any additional.

Those of us here "On The Borderline" have been advocating against ethanol for years and have even delved into some research of our own. See The Cost of Oil and Corn Ethanol, Part I The Cost of Oil and Corn Ethanol, Part II and other posts where "ethanol" was a major topic.

Here Ethanol 1 and Ethanol 2.

May-08
01

Say No To Hybrids

Posted by: Chris | Comments (1)

New EngineOver the years, my interest in science has always led me to appreciate new technology.  In many, if not most cases, there are many things that need to be weighed in order to determine whether a solution is feasible.  Number one of course, is not anything emotional, but simply cost.  When the alternative technology becomes cheaper to manufacture on a large scale, the invisible hand of the market will step in and determine what the market can bear.  Secondly, as a software engineer, I strive to create code that is efficient.  While it may be easier to write code that meets the requirements set forth in a project quickly, I strive for efficiency even more.  This manifests it self as extremely efficient, highly reusable, and easily extensible code.  The same is true for any other type of engineer.  By building software and other products in this manner, it only takes a slight modification of a variable to make it much more efficient.  In many cases it can be a higher speed CPU, memory, or hard drive, that can enhance performance tremendously. 

That being said, I think one of the most unknown parts of a engine, any engine are the bearings.  Most are made of ball bearings.  But much like looking at a cue ball under a stereo microscope, we find it’s surface is much like the earths.  It has crevasses, fissures, and mountain ranges, when measured in scale, extremely similar.  The same is true of a ball bearing.  The efficiency is determined by its roundness.  I’m not positive as how they make ball bearings, but I do know gravity is one of the main obstacles to making them perfect.  I remember back in high school thinking that once we could make ball bearings in space, we could make a more perfectly round ball bearing.  What would a nearly perfect ball bearing do to the efficiency of a motor, wheel, or any moving part of a machine?  Could it be made 10-15% more efficient?  Probably.  But until we have the capability to manufacture in space with economic feasibility, this won’t happen.  There are other things though, that science has done to the combustion engine to  make it  more efficient.   I remember  the Wankel engines and other various configurations of pistons and crankshafts in the past.  I’ve even heard of a ceramic engine.  The horse power of todays motors are close to twice the amounts they were 20 years ago for a motor the same size.  They have been becoming more efficient.

Engineers have been experimenting with reconfiguring many of the components that make up the automobile engine.  I have faith they will be able to squeeze much more milage out of an engine and it that won’t require making a vehicle less safe by minimizing it’s weight. In fact I’m positive it will happen, but just how much is it going to cost?

See Six New Technologies Will Help Manufacturers Reach the 35 MPG (Without Hybrids)

Comments (1)
Apr-08
27

Who Will Go Hungry

Posted by: spiritofpublicus | Comments (0)

A good idea that fails does not exist. It is simply a bad idea.

Alarmed over the effects of rising food prices, Governor Rick Perry of Texas requested a partial waiver pertaining to ethanol mandates from the federal government. It is now becoming obvious to almost everyone that converting portions of the nations agricultural land over to fuel production has caused what some term a food crisis around the world.

The Texas governor said that such a waiver was “the best, quickest way” to ease rising food costs before lasting damage was done. The governor will get no argument from me on this point. His statement, however, should have been the one that President Bush gave several hours earlier in the Rose Garden instead of the one glorifying the $600 rebate checks from the US Treasury.

The President had the opportunity to call for a national outcry against government intrusion into the energy markets. He could have apologized for the failures of government manipulation and lead the charge to eliminate bureaucratic intervention in the production and consumption of energy, but he did not, and neither did the major candidates for President.

Even though I agree with the call for suspension of ethanol mandates, the Texas governor stopped well short of what needed to be done. Why only call for a partial waiver. In a twist to the saying about a good idea, one moment of a bad idea is a moment too much. On top of ethanols affect on food prices, it has also been well documented about the deficiencies of ethanols true energy savings and environmental friendliness. The whole idea of burning your food supply was bad from the beginning.

So why ask for a partial waiver? Governor Perry should have demanded an immediate full stop to the madness. Instead he softens his critique of the federal legislation by adding that he appreciated the good intentions behind the program.

The reality of life is not found in intentions, but consequences. Good intentions combined with a bad idea always results in a bad outcome. This is what politicians call an unintended consequence.

The Texas governor and all governors around the country now have an opportunity to reestablish the rights of their citizens. No where does the US Constitution address the governments role in energy or for that matter most of the current programs directed by the federal bureaucracy. Under the tenets of the Tenth Amendment, Governor Perry does not need permission from Washington D.C. to opt out of ethanol mandates. Similar to Utahs experience with No Child Left Behind, Texas and any other state can simply tell the federal government to take a hike.

Now is the time for governors around the country to show whether they represent the interests of citizens within their state or the agents of the federal government. Who is to go hungry, the one who toils or the one who takes?

Half Bad Idea is Still Bad

Comments (0)
Apr-08
24

Twenty Percent Can Save Your Life

Posted by: Henry Patrick | Comments (2)

A couple of years after our son was born, doctors discovered that one of his kidneys had very little function. Plagued by several years of high temperature illnesses related to problems with the urinary tract, an operation was performed to relieve the stress caused by the defective organ.

Annual check-ups and x-rays became the normal procedure for many years in order to evaluate the functioning of the two kidneys. About the time our son became a teenager, the urologist suggested that the less effective kidney be removed, and thus preventing any possible problems later in life. My wife and I decided that such a drastic remedy needed a second opinion, and with medical folders in tote, we headed to the Mayo Clinic.

The specialist we saw at this world famous clinic had no debate as to the function of the bad kidney. He then continued to relay his feelings about removing body parts, which should only be done as a last resort. Though the deficient kidney was only about 20% functional, this doctor reasoned that in case of a traumatic injury to the good kidney, then the little function of the other kidney could very well save our sons life. After hearing his logic, we took no time in deciding that the kidney would stay.

The current state of food prices and possible shortages due to ethanol production certainly is a cause for concern. But the wheat yields from Australia this year may be a harbinger of an agricultural Armageddon. A big reason for the lower than normal wheat output from down under was due to weather. The growing season started off in the southern hemisphere cool and wet, similar to what the farmers in the plains are experiencing now. The less than ideal weather for planting was then followed by a drought. The toll on the harvest is now partially to blame for the dislocation in the world wheat markets.

The domestic push for biofuel production has converted approximately 25% of the agricultural landscape to the production of ethanol. I have no hard statistics, but one could speculate that the balance of farmland used to produce commodities for human consumption would need to yield to its fullest potential in order to avoid any additional disruptions in the food supply. But what if the weather in this countrys farm belt mimics that of Australia? No doubt commodity prices would continue to leap higher along with the prospect of widespread famine around the world.

In the worst case scenario for weather, the 25% of farm land now involved in ethanol production could be the difference between life and death for some people.

Government policy has in effect removed the bad kidney.

Comments (2)
Apr-08
24

The Mythical Money Maker

Posted by: bildanielson | Comments (8)

There is a pernicious myth running amok right now on the msm, today I saw it spewing over at CNBC. Here is typically how it goes: prices are high for many commodities right now (of course, we all understand its real cause – inflation of the money supply) and $120 oil, corn heading out of sight along with its field replacement bretheren (soybeans, wheat, barley, etc), and all the rest following in suit means that we are all paying substantially more for basic food stuffs and fuel. Reality is that we are in a period marked by a sustained long run inflation which is doing what it always does, inducing price rises.

So the myth purveyors state that with prices so high someone must be making huge profits, right? Well, not so fast. Return on investment may actually, and I would argue more than likely, be lower all across the board as a result of this inflation. Price rise is merely an after effect of inflation, whether or not someone, anyone, is generating an economic profit or not (let alone an accounting profit) above and beyond what anyone else in the market can make is very questionable. The problem businesses have in an inflationary environment is how to measure return on investment – it becomes increasingly difficult when the government prints money (and its equivalents) to measure profit. So, when in doubt raise your prices…. Couple this with other forms of government intervention (such as 25% of the corn crop diverted to ethanol) and you have an incredible problem on your hands. What these talking heads are doing here is engaging in anti-capitalist rhetoric designed to scapegoat someone.

The party they seem never to pin the real blame on, the party who is precisely responsible for the price rises and the misallocation of agricultural products, is the government!

I heard an equally moronic statement the other day by some politician who said, “at $117 per barrel, all these oil companies must be making outrageous profits.” Folks, who do you think purchases crude oil? Does your car run on crude oil? Good grief…

I wrote a piece a long time ago arguing that the greatest boondoggle of all time is this ethanol scam. One of my chief concerns was the ability of OPEC to very easily smash any efforts we might want to engage in with bio-fuels. Well, you are seeing the proof of my argument in spades right in front of you. The oil producers of the world are playing us like a fiddle right now, and it is our government, led by George W. Bush and the GOP, who is fully and completely responsible for the economic mess we are in – and it is only going to get much worse.

Comments (8)
Apr-08
21

The First Principle of Economics

Posted by: Henry Patrick | Comments (2)

Responding to a question concerning rising commodity prices and food shortages that are now encircling the world, the chairman of Caterpillar Corporation stated that the agricultural crisis was an unintended consequence of government policy toward biofuel production.

Whenever a legislative action results in a less than desirable outcome, we often hear the explanation that such a result was an unintended consequence. In other words, the policy carries no burden of blame because the outcome was unforeseen. It is as if the reason for the negative result was simply an act of God.

Though it is hard to believe that anyone would intentionally invoke a policy that would result in people starving, the consequences, however, of using farmland to produce fuel is far from a chance outcome. The realm of the human condition is governed by specific natural laws. Gravity for instance not only keeps us from falling off the earth, but it provides the boundaries from which a rocket operates. Ignoring the laws of gravity would result in a cataclysmic disaster.

Another illustration would be of a person driving an automobile, without malice, and running stop signs at a busy intersection. The driver has no intention of causing harm, but the outcome of ignoring this particular traffic law will almost certainly result in property damage and injury to other drivers. To say the actions of the offending driver resulted in unintended consequences is bordering on the absurd.

The so-called unintended consequences of government action are no different than our driver ignoring the stop sign. The negative outcomes are a result of breaking the natural law. In the case of biofuel production, the most basic tenet of economic law was ignored, the scarcity of resources.

The fact remains that only a set amount of land exists in the world. Taking into account climate and topography, only a limited amount of the earths surface has the necessary composition for crop production. Planting, therefore, is a zero-sum game whereby the increased production of one plant means less production of another. Using fertile fields for corn based ethanol results in a decrease yield for other crops including corn for human and animal consumption.

People have come to believe that almost anything is possible through the collective action of government. But government can no more circumvent the laws of economics than it can the laws of gravity, and in attempting to do so, the result will be a predictable disaster.

Comments (2)

This is a Widget Section

This section is widgetized. If you would like to add content to this section, you may do so by using the Widgets panel from within your WordPress Admin Dashboard. This Widget Section is called "Feature Bottom Left"

This is a Widget Section

This section is widgetized. If you would like to add content to this section, you may do so by using the Widgets panel from within your WordPress Admin Dashboard. This Widget Section is called "Feature Bottom Middle"

This is a Widget Section

This section is widgetized. If you would like to add content to this section, you may do so by using the Widgets panel from within your WordPress Admin Dashboard. This Widget Section is called "Feature Bottom Right"